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Rodri’s Injury: Can Man City Survive?

The loss of a key player could derail Manchester City’s quest for another successful season, but can Guardiola’s side cope with Rodri’s absence? Rodri is out for the season after sustaining an ACL and meniscus damage to his knee in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal.

Manchester City are renowned for their squad depth and tactical flexibility under Pep Guardiola. Yet, the absence of Rodri—arguably the best defensive midfielder in world football—poses a significant threat to their campaign. With plenty of matches remaining this season, the question looms: how will Manchester City adapt without the player who has been instrumental to their success?

Confirming Rodri’s ‘season is over’ with the ACL injury, Pep Guardiola says Man City will “have to find a way” to play without Rodri for the rest of the season.

Rodri’s Influence: More Than Just a Midfielder

Rodri’s value to Manchester City cannot simply be reduced to goals or assists, though he contributes in both areas. His presence on the field ensures the team functions seamlessly in both defence and attack. He controls the tempo, snuffs out counter-attacks, and allows City’s more attacking players the freedom to focus on scoring. 

Now, Manchester City’s stats are terrible without Rodri. Since joining City in 2019, Rodri has featured in over 85% of the club’s Premier League minutes, making him one of Guardiola’s most relied-upon players. With him, they haven’t lost a Premier League game since February 2023, and they’ve only lost 19 games across his 174 league appearances since joining the club. In his absence, City’s statistics plummet. In the 21 games they’ve played without him, they’ve lost seven — a 33% loss rate, up from 11%.

This season, his injury leaves City grappling with a crisis that goes beyond just filling a position—it’s about maintaining the rhythm and balance that Rodri provides.

What Makes Rodri So Irreplaceable?

Many players excel within a system, but Rodri creates the system. His unique ability to read the game, control possession, and dictate the flow of play makes him indispensable. He is one of the few players who contributes equally to defence and attack.

Across Europe’s Big Five leagues, and since 2017, there have been eight seasons in which a player made at least 90 tackles+interceptions in a season, completed at least 90% of passes, and played at least 250 progressive passes, per the site FBref. Three of those seasons were Rodri’s three most-recent seasons. In those seasons, Rodri has added 17 goals and 17 assists, far surpassing his counterparts in similar roles. In short, he is a generational talent whose loss cannot easily be compensated by mere squad rotation.

Guardiola’s Dilemma: How to Fill the Void

Without Rodri, City must turn to other players to fill the gap. While Guardiola has a wealth of talent at his disposal—such as Mateo Kovacic, John Stones, and Rico Lewis—none can replicate Rodri’s all-encompassing role. At best, Guardiola can attempt to spread Rodri’s duties across multiple players, but that approach risks diluting City’s effectiveness.

Replacing Rodri is a challenge not just tactically but structurally. City have thrived in recent seasons by playing with a small squad, filled with versatile players who can cover multiple positions. This strategy, however, leaves them vulnerable when key players like Rodri or Kevin De Bruyne are sidelined.

Football is a team game, and no one player is expected to single-handedly win matches over the course of a long season. However, in Rodri’s case, his value to Manchester City is tangible. Using rough estimations, Rodri contributes around 0.21 points per game to City’s performance—resulting in approximately seven points lost over the remaining Premier League season without him.

If City were projected to finish with 88 points this season (based on their five-year average), Rodri’s injury would lower that expectation to 81 points—a tally that could see them finish outside the top two. Furthermore, Arsenal and Liverpool, both resurgent this season, will view this as an opportunity to challenge City’s dominance. 

City’s Options: Stick or Twist?

Pep Guardiola has built a reputation for tactical innovation, often finding unexpected solutions to seemingly insurmountable problems. In the past, he has transformed players like Kyle Walker and Bernardo Silva into hybrid roles that have helped City maintain their fluidity. This time, though, the challenge may be greater. The midfield is the engine room of any team, and Rodri has been the heartbeat of Guardiola’s City.

Guardiola, naming the solutions to Rodri absence after the win over Fulham said, “We don’t have him [Rodri] now this season so we have to find a solution. We have Kova, [Ilkay] Gundo, we can put John [Stones] in that role, Rico [Lewis], Manu [Akanji] so we have to find a way.

“Of course the presence of Rodri is important in this type of game with the transitions but we played really well.”

Without reinforcements in the January transfer window, Guardiola will have to gamble on his current squad to sustain their domestic and European ambitions. While City could still cruise through the Champions League group stages, they will face tougher competition as the season progresses. Domestically, the loss of Rodri, combined with De Bruyne’s continued injury struggles, could have a multiplier effect, leaving City vulnerable to dropping points in critical matches.

Guardiola has overcome injury crises before, managing to adapt his side to maintain their title challenges. But the loss of Rodri, coupled with an ageing De Bruyne, poses a unique problem. Can City maintain their dominance without the lynchpins of their midfield? Or will this season be remembered as the one where injuries finally caught up with Guardiola’s meticulous planning?

New reports have also said that Manchester City are keeping a close eye on Porto’s defensive midfielder Alan Varela, as a January transfer replacement for Rodri.

The 23-year-old Argentine has drawn significant interest from the Premier League champions as they look for a potential signing in the January transfer window to replace the Rodri. Varela is known for his excellent defensive positioning, breaking up opposition play and recovering possession. He also boasts solid passing accuracy and has the ability to score from long range, making him a versatile option for City’s midfield.

The coming months will provide answers. For now, though, City fans will be anxiously watching how Guardiola navigates life without Rodri—and whether Manchester City can continue their relentless march towards more silverware.

Image Credit: Getty

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