Gameweek 12 marks a critical shift in the FPL landscape, returning after the international break with several crucial fixtures for teams like Liverpool, Manchester United, and Chelsea. This week’s review focuses heavily on capitalizing on porous opponent defences and backing high-upside differentials who have built significant confidence both domestically and internationally.
1. Estêvão (Chelsea) vs. Burnley (A)
Estêvão enters the spotlight purely based on the quality of his opposition. The fixture against Burnley presents a potential points windfall, as the Clarets boast the worst defence in the league across multiple metrics, notably ranking low for xG conceded and struggling against attacks down the right flank. This matchup offers a high ceiling if he gets minutes. However, the caveat is substantial: his rating remains Medium-Low due to the uncertainty surrounding his starting position amidst Chelsea’s squad depth, making him a high-risk, high-reward differential.
2. Élie Kroupi (AFC Bournemouth) vs. West Ham United (H)
Kroupi is an excellent Medium-High confidence pick. The French forward has shown elite conversion metrics, with 4 goals in 8 Premier League appearances and an outstanding 2.1 Shots on Target per match, the best rate among Bournemouth attackers. This weekend, he benefits from Bournemouth’s second-best home defence (conceding only 2 goals at the Vitality Stadium) facing a West Ham side that has conceded in eight consecutive fixtures. This is a prime opportunity for him to break his recent two-game blank streak.
3. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) vs. Everton (H)
The Manchester United captain is a High confidence asset this week. Fernandes provides a unique blend of guaranteed minutes and exceptional creative volume, leading all FPL midfielders with 29 Chances Created this season and boasting an XGI (Expected Goal Involvement) of 6.45. Against an Everton side that has conceded 8 goals away from home and is yet to keep an away clean sheet, his involvement in set pieces and penalty duty makes him the most reliable captain alternative in this bracket for a favourable fixture.
4. Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) vs. Leeds United (A)
Rogers offers attacking influence for an Aston Villa side expected to score multiple goals, earning a Medium confidence rating. His individual goal threat is strong, ranking as one of Villa’s leading players for combined shots and chances created (24) this season. He faces a highly exploitable Leeds defence that has conceded 12 goals in their five road trips and is currently without an away clean sheet. This vulnerability is the key factor in backing Rogers for an attacking return.
5. Jørgen Strand Larsen (Wolverhampton Wanderers) vs. Crystal Palace (A)
Larsen’s Medium rating is driven by compelling short-term narrative. The striker’s confidence is significantly boosted after scoring an impressive solo goal against Italy to seal Norway’s World Cup qualification during the break. Furthermore, this is the debut match for new Wolves manager Rob Edwards, suggesting a possible new manager bounce. The favourable opponent, Crystal Palace, has been defensively poor recently, conceding 13 goals in their last six matches.
6. Wilson Isidor (Sunderland) vs. Fulham (H)
Isidor is a strong Medium differential choice. As Sunderland’s top league scorer with 3 goals, he provides a consistent focal point for their attack. He faces a Fulham side struggling for form, having lost five of their last six league matches. A notable trend is that Fulham have conceded 69% of their goals in the second half, suggesting Isidor and Sunderland’s attack could capitalize late in the game to secure a return.
7. Igor Thiago (Brentford) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (A)
Thiago retains his Medium-High confidence based purely on his underlying elite metrics. The striker’s perennial form is backed by an xGI (Expected Goal Involvement) of 0.6 per 90 and receiving seven big chances this season. He faces a Brighton side that has conceded in all but one home match this season, setting the stage for a characteristically high-scoring, open game in which Thiago is consistently central to Brentford’s output especially due to his aerial threat.
8. Jérémy Doku (Manchester City) vs. Newcastle United (A)
Despite a tricky away fixture, Doku maintains a Medium-High confidence rating due to his electric, fixture-proof individual form. His high-volume penetration is unparalleled, evidenced by 64 Touches in the Opposition Box and 58 Successful Dribbles this season. His primary appeal lies in his Assist Potential, with an xA (Expected Assists) of 2.14 over 623 minutes, confirming his role as a crucial creative feeder for Erling Haaland, making him a high-impact pick regardless of the opponent.
This selection perfectly highlights the key assets available as we leave the international break. While reliable players like Fernandes are fixtures in a dream matchup, the real upside lies with the differentials
