Gameweek 22 brings a critical juncture in the 2025/26 Premier League season. As Arsenal defends a six-point lead and Manchester gears up for a historic derby under the lights, the fantasy landscape is shifting toward high-upside differentials and clinical finishers. Here are the Scout’s Top 8 players primed for major returns this weekend.
1. Erling Haaland (Man City) – vs. Manchester United (A)
Despite a relatively quiet spell, Erling Haaland remains the league’s premier threat with 20 goals and 4 assists. His underlying metrics are elite, boasting a 44.2% shot accuracy and 16 big chances converted from an xG of 18.52. The Manchester Derby has historically been his stage; he averages 1.2 goal involvements per match against United, totaling 8 goals and 3 assists in 9 appearances. Facing a United defense conceding 1.52 goals per game, Haaland is perfectly positioned to ruin Michael Carrick’s first game as permanent head coach.
2. Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) – vs. Burnley (H)
Liverpool needs a clinical spark at Anfield after consecutive draws, and Hugo Ekitike is the primary candidate. With 8 goals and 2 assists in 18 matches, Ekitike sits in the 88th percentile for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) at 0.57 per 90. He is currently averaging 3.73 shots per 90, suggesting a goal is imminent against a Burnley side that has leaked 39 goals this season (1.85 per game). Historically, Burnley struggles at Anfield, which should provide Ekitike with high-volume shooting opportunities.
3. Pedro Neto (Chelsea) – vs. Brentford (H)
Pedro Neto is set to be the catalyst for Liam Rosenior’s debut as Chelsea manager. Neto has recorded 5 goals and 3 assists this season, ranking in the 72nd percentile for chances created. Rosenior’s tactical shift likely favors Neto’s elite 1v1 ability, where he completes 2.1 successful dribbles per 90. With Cole Palmer and Reece James returning to the lineup, defenses will be stretched thin, leaving Neto with the isolated 1v1 matchups he thrives on against a Brentford side that has conceded two or more in recent away trips.
4. Xavi Simons (Tottenham) – vs. West Ham (H)
Xavi Simons is significantly underperforming his expected assists (xA) by 1.8, suggesting his 3 assists are just the beginning. His shot-creating actions sit in the 83rd percentile, and he averages 4.1 progressive carries per 90. This makes him the ideal weapon to unlock West Ham’s rigid defensive structure under Paco Jemez. Simons maintains a 7.4 average rating at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Spurs have gone unbeaten in their last four meetings with the Hammers.
5. Harry Wilson (Fulham) – vs. Leeds (A)
Harry Wilson is currently enjoying his best season yet, amassing 7 goals and 4 assists. His clinical nature is highlighted by a 18% conversion rate and 15 shots on target. This weekend’s trip to Leeds is a statistical dream for Wilson; Leeds ranks in the bottom three for goals conceded from outside the box, while Wilson takes over half of his shots (52%) from distance. With Fulham on a five-game unbeaten run, Wilson is primed to exploit a defense conceding 1.7 goals per game.
6. Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) – vs. Nottingham Forest (A)
Viktor Gyökeres has 5 goals in 19 appearances, but his xG of 6.39 suggests he is due for a massive breakout. He is the focal point of an Arsenal attack that has created 41 big chances (2nd in the league). Gyökeres averages 4.7 touches in the opposition box per 90 and wins 34.5% of his aerial duels. This physicality targets Sean Dyche’s 17th-placed Forest defense, which typically employs a low block that invites the high-volume shooting (3.1 shots per game) Gyökeres provides.
7. Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) – vs. Wolves (A)
Standing at 6’6″, Nick Woltemade provides a physical mismatch that bottom-of-the-table Wolves are ill-equipped to handle. He has 7 goals and 2 assists in 18 matches, averaging a goal involvement every 181 minutes. Woltemade scored the winner in his last meeting with Wolves and should dominate a backline that has an aerial win rate of just 42%. Facing a team that has only won once all season, Woltemade is Newcastle’s highest-ceiling asset this weekend.
8. Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) vs. Everton (H)
Morgan Rogers is one of the most efficient forwards in the league, with 7 goals from an xG of just 3.4. Beyond finishing, he sits in the 81st percentile for expected assists (xAG) and creates roughly one big chance every three games. He is heavily involved in Villa’s final phase, averaging 4.2 touches in the penalty area. Rogers has picked up an assist in each of his last three meetings with Everton. Against a David Moyes side that is statistically over-performing its defensive metrics, Rogers’ 1.91 successful take-ons per 90 make him a safe bet for returns at Villa Park.
The data for Matchweek 22 highlights a clear trend: this is a weekend for established clinical finishers and physical outliers. From Haaland’s inevitable derby threat to the underlying numbers of Gyökeres and Ekitike, these eight players offer the most robust statistical backing for big points.
