Gameweek 13 presents a series of excellent fixtures for managers targeting high-upside differentials, particularly from teams facing vulnerable opponents like Wolves and Burnley. This review details the case for eight key players, examining their form, underlying statistics, and the specific weaknesses they can exploit this weekend.
1. Yankuba Minteh (Brighton & Hove Albion) vs. Nottingham Forest (A)
Minteh is rated as a Medium confidence pick. While Brighton’s attack is in strong form (scoring 5 and conceding just 1 in their last three games), the Forest defense has tightened significantly, boasting the best record in the league for big chances conceded (only 2 in the last four Gameweeks). Minteh’s case rests on his relentless creativity, leading Brighton with 4 assists and 21 Chances Created, providing a necessary route to returns against a predicted low-scoring, defensive block.
2. Randal Kolo Muani (Tottenham Hotspur) vs. Fulham (H)
Kolo Muani carries a Medium confidence rating into the London derby. Spurs need a strong reaction after recent defeats, and the striker provides a key threat. His appeal is bolstered by Fulham’s weak away record, having conceded 10 goals in their last five away games. Muani’s high ranking for Chances Created (CC) and his recent goals in Champions League play provide the vital confidence and directness needed to unlock a struggling Fulham defense.
3. Rayan Cherki (Manchester City) vs. Leeds United (H)
Cherki is a high-ceiling differential with a Medium-High confidence rating. Manchester City’s home fixture against Leeds (FDR 2) is highly favourable, with City leading the league for expected goals created at home. Cherki’s underlying numbers are excellent, showing an Elite Upside Differential through an xGI (Expected Goal Involvement) of 0.50 per 90. Though rotation is a concern, his creative output against a weak defensive opponent provides huge haul potential.
4. Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)
Rogers is a solid Medium confidence pick, purely benefiting from the best attacking fixture of the week. He faces Wolves, the only team without a clean sheet this season and the worst defense for goals conceded (27). Rogers himself is highly involved in Villa’s attack, ranking as one of their leading players for combined shots and chances created (24), making him a prime candidate to exploit a vulnerable Wolves backline.
5. Harvey Barnes (Newcastle United) vs. Everton (A)
Barnes is confirmed fit and in explosive form, having scored a crucial brace against Man City in Gameweek 12 and also in the 2-1 loss to Marseille in the UCL, validating his Fitness & Upside. This raises his confidence to Medium. His speed offers a key Zonal Threat against an Everton defense that is inconsistent and prone to conceding on the flanks. With Newcastle facing an Everton side whose home defense is merely average, Barnes’s recent goal-scoring form makes him a serious threat in this matchup.
6. Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) vs. West Ham United (A)
Ekitike represents a Medium confidence route into Liverpool’s excellent fixture swing. While minutes are a constant risk due to competition, the Porous Opponent factor is strong: West Ham have conceded in eight consecutive matches across all competitions. Liverpool is expected to score multiple goals, meaning Ekitike’s returns, if he secures minutes, could be high in this West Ham matchup.
7. Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United) vs. Crystal Palace (A)
Mbeumo is a Medium-High confidence asset blending reliable form with a favorable opponent. He offers a high floor with 5 returns in his last 6 league games. His opponent, Crystal Palace, has been defensively weak, having conceded 13 goals in their last six matches and kept no clean sheets, making Mbeumo an explosive pick this week.
8. Kevin Schade (Brentford) vs. Burnley (H)
Schade is a highly attractive Medium-High differential pick (owned by only 1.3% of FPL managers). He faces Burnley, a profoundly struggling defense that ranks low for xG conceded. Schade’s attacking profile, direct running and high goal threat, is perfectly suited to exploit Burnley’s high defensive line and poor defensive organization, giving him a high probability of attacking returns in this FDR 2 fixture.
This Gameweek offers clear opportunities for patient managers. While core picks like Mbeumo and Cherki benefit from favorable matchups, the most appealing value lies with the Aston Villa assets (Rogers) and the high-ceiling differential Schade, all facing the league’s weakest defenses.
